مراجع:
1- H. Brooks, The typology of surprises in technology, institutions, and development, in: W.C. Clark, R.E. Munn Eds.,Sustainable Development of the Biosphere, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1986, pp. 325 – 350.
2- P.F. Drucker, The Age of Discontinuity, Harper and Row, New York, 1968.
3- R.U. Ayres, On forecasting discontinuities, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 65 (2000) 81 – 97.
4-S. Mendonca, M.P. Cunha, J. Kaivo-oja, F. Ruff, Wild cards, weak signals and organisational improvisation, Futures,36 (2) (2004) 201 – 218.
5- Ph. W. F. van Notten et al, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 72 (2005) 175-194.
6- C.S. Holling, The resilience of terrestrial ecosystems: local surprise and global change, in: W.C. Clark, R.E. Munn Eds Sustainable Development in the Biosphere, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, 1986.
7- S.H. Schneider, B.L. Turner II, H. Morehouse Garriga, Imaginable surprise in global change science, J. Risk Res. 11 (2) (1998(165 – 185.
8- M.H. Glantz, D.G. Streets, T.R. Stewart, N. Bhatti, C.M. Moore, C.H. Rosa, Exploring the Concept of Climate Surprises: A Review of the Literature on the Concept of Surprise and How It Is Related to Climate Change, Environmental and Societal Impacts Group, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, 1998.
9- M. Thompson, R. Ellis, A. Wildavsky, Cultural Theory, Westview Press, Boulder, CO, 1990.
10-
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_Card_%28card_games%29
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_card_%28Foresight_research%29
13- Barber Marcos., Wildcards- Signals from a future near you Strategic Foresight Analyst, Swinburne University
14- Ansoff, Igor. 1975. "Managing Strategic Surprise by Response to Weak Signals." California Management Review. XVIII(2): 21-33. Winter.
15- Rockfellow, John. 1994. "Wild Cards: Preparing for the Big One." The Futurist. 1: 14-19.
16- Petersen, John L. 1999. Out of the Blue-How to Anticipate Big Future Surprises. Lanham: Madison Books.
17- Cornish, Edward. 2003. "The Wild Cards in our Future." The Futurist. 37: 18-22.
18- Dewar, James A. "The Importance of 'Wild Card' Scenarios."Available: http://www.cia.gov/nic/PDF_GIF_2020_...dewar_nov6.pdf.
19- Mannermaa, Mika. 2004. Heikoista Signaaleista Vahva Tulevaisuus. Porvoo: WSOY. Translated into English by Hiltunen and Jääskeläinen
20- Dator, Jim. 1996. "Futures Studies as Applied Knowledge." In Slaughter, Richard, ed., New Thinking for a New Millennium. London: Routledge. And In Kaoru Yamaguchi. Sustainable Global Communities in the Information Age: Visions from Futures Studies. London: Adamantine Press. 1997. Available:http://www.futures.hawaii.edu/dator/...pliedknow.html
21- Hiltunen, E., Was it a wild card or just our blindness to gradual change?, Journal of Futures Studies, November 2006, 11(2): 61 - 74
22-Coffman, Brian. 1997a. "Weak Signal® Research, Part I: Introduction." MG Taylor. Available: http://www.mgtaylor.com/mgtaylor/jotm/ winter97/wsrintro.htm
23- Webb, John R. 1987. An Evaluation of Igor Ansoff's Theory of Weak Signal Management by Means of an Investigation and Forecast of Future Developments in the Ophthalmic Laser Environment. Doctoral Thesis. University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.
24-Day, George S. and Paul J. H. Schoemaker. 2005. "Scanning the Periphery." Harvard Business Review. November: 135-148.
منبع فارسی برای مطالعه بیشتر
خزائی، سعید، پالايه ي علايم ضعيف: مانعي بر سر راه آينده نگاري، وبلاگ سید علیرضا حجازی: مقالات فنآوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات http://ictarticle.blogfa.com/post-80.aspx
http://ictarticle.blogfa.com/post-81.aspx
http://ictarticle.blogfa.com/post-82.aspx
http://ictarticle.blogfa.com/post-83.aspx
ناپیوستگی ها، شگفتی سازها، و علائم ضعیف آینده
پاسخ با نقل قول
